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Nola RPG (Big Easy Table Top RPGs - New Orleans Roleplaying D&D D20 GURPS) › Hurricane & Evacuations › Darth Gustav › Gustav

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Gustav (Read 1469 times)

Liam Stark II PC Staff ShadowRun B oldEsplanade Kallistier WhatNot Rune Bound Esplanade Offline Awesome. Posts: 656	Gustav Aug 27^th, 2008 at 5:20pm I know I am traveling this weekend (and going to miss my game ) but for anyone else who hasn't been paying attention: Multimedia File Viewing and Clickable Links are available for Registered Members only!! You need to or
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Re: Gustav
Reply #1 - Aug 28^th, 2008 at 6:24pm

Don't forget to take the entire cone into account. It's not just the little line they always put through the middle. That's the most likely track, but the error of margin 5 days out is very large. Just overnight, there's been a significant shift westward in most of the models.

At 2pm today, the WWL weather guy, Carl, is hosting a live chat session. I submitted a questions asking which models have the best track record, what's their historical accuracy (as a percent) 5 days out and can the prediction cone be presented as a gradient of percentages.

Can you tell that I like Rolemaster and GURPS? Cool

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Re: Gustav
Reply #2 - Aug 28^th, 2008 at 6:57pm

I know. And today's map has it more to the west and tuesday morning instead of monday. Mainly I was just telling people to pay attention because it is a holiday weekend. If the trigger gets pulled on New Orleans evacuation then the highways could be set for contra-flow over this weekend and that will just make traffic worse.

The odd thing is that the blue line, which was the closest one to the projected path yesterday went east while most of the others moved west. So yesterday it looked like the blue algorithm was the favorite and now its being ignored. This tells me the algorithm for combining them isn't simple and might favor one over the others based on other factors... i.e. one is good in a certain water temp range or differential pressure or exact pressure or ....

I used to work for NOAA and then worked for METOC for a while. I miss have several experts a cube away so I could get personal forcasts.

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SombreNote DM Stark DM ShadowRun B Kallistier Intelligent_Life Staff oldEsplanade WhatNot Enlightened Esplanade Offline The DM Posts: 613 Ann Arbor, MI	Re: Gustav Reply #3 - Aug 30^th, 2008 at 4:44am I have found that I really do not want to drive all the way out to Texas. My only real concern is to find a place so that none of my car windows get broken. If I could find a place to stow my car I would weather it.
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Liam Stark II PC Staff ShadowRun B oldEsplanade Kallistier WhatNot Rune Bound Esplanade Offline Awesome. Posts: 656	Re: Gustav Reply #4 - Aug 30^th, 2008 at 5:08am I'm taking one car to covington so my garage will have the other car. You could leave it at work on the third level near the middle... that might be better. I could help you drop it off but if bad things happen, I couldn't get you to it.
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SombreNote DM Stark DM ShadowRun B Kallistier Intelligent_Life Staff oldEsplanade WhatNot Enlightened Esplanade Offline The DM Posts: 613 Ann Arbor, MI	Re: Gustav Reply #5 - Aug 30^th, 2008 at 6:16am You think there are any good spots in the structure blocked from the elements? Perhaps the bottom level?
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Liam Stark II PC Staff ShadowRun B oldEsplanade Kallistier WhatNot Rune Bound Esplanade Offline Awesome. Posts: 656	Re: Gustav Reply #6 - Aug 30^th, 2008 at 7:06am Bottom could flood. You could park in the middle of the 3rd or fourth floor. Stuff could blow in but nothing will fall on it. That's the best I can come up with. If you think its safe on the bottom floor you could park near a wall.
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Admin account YaBB Administrator Offline I love YaBB! Posts: 76 maintenance account	Re: Gustav Reply #7 - Sep 1^st, 2008 at 12:49am Off topic replies have been moved to Multimedia File Viewing and Clickable Links are available for Registered Members only!! You need to or
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